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Weekly UK Insight

The June 2021 Gas price rose by 1.6% to 61.23p/therm last week as EU gas storage has continued to fall to 30%, due to increased demand throughout the start of May as temperatures remain below seasonal normal levels.

UK gas storage has also continued to fall to 5% of capacity, the lowest level since April-2018 following the “Beast from the East” cold winter. The competition with the EU for gas and subsequent increases in the price of LNG have continued to drive up the price of UK gas.

The June 2021 Power price saw little movement last week, with a small fall of 0.1% to £69.62/MWh. Prices remain high as carbon breaches €50/tCO2 for the first time in its history. Carbon remains the main price driver, with a share of fundamentals supporting the previously speculative rises in the market. With low gas storage across Continental Europe, the need to burn coal for power generation has increased. This has subsequently provided support to the carbon market as demand for credits has increased.

The Oct 2021 12 Month Gas price increased significantly last week, rising by 3.5% to 58.03p/therm. This is driven principally by the very high costs of Winter 2021/22 as low European storage will likely take time to recover, heightening the risk of Winter shortages.

The Oct 2021 12 Month Power price rose by 3.1% to £67.85/MWh. Increases in the price of power are expected, with easing Covid-19 lockdown measures spurring demand. The current magnitude of the price increases remains driven by the record-breaking cost of EU carbon.

Weekly UK Insight – 10 May 2021