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Weekly UK Insight

The March 2021 Gas contract fell 6.4% last week on the back of warmer weather forecasts, despite unplanned outages at four Norwegian gas fields restricting supply by a combined 17.5 mcm until Tuesday.

The March 2021 Power contract fell 3.7%, tracking movements in the equivalent gas contract, while carbon prices also fell.

The April 2021 12 Month Gas price declined 2.3% last week, as temperatures fluctuate around seasonal norms, but are largely milder compared to previous estimates. Despite European gas storage falling to around 55% capacity, 18% lower than last year, storage levels are still in line with 2019. It is hoped milder weather will relax the supply and demand balance.

After spot prices in Asia reached record highs at the start of the year, milder weather in the region has now caused global LNG prices fall back to normal levels. It is hoped this will signal improved LNG supply to Europe in response to any potential spikes in weather related demand. This week, the UK is expecting LNG delivery of 0.397 bcm, up from 0.263 bcm last week.

In other news, construction on the remaining 150km of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline resumed in Danish waters last week. The pipeline will have capacity of 55bcm/year once completed.

The April 2021 12 Month Power price fell 2.2% last week, mirroring losses in the equivalent gas contract, while carbon prices also weakened.

Weekly UK Insight – 01 February 2021