National Grid Winter Outlook
Report summary

National Grid Winter Outlook Report summary

Please see attached latest Winter Outlook report from National Grid

See their key messages below:

Electricity key messages:

  • Loss of load expectation is 1.1 hours / year
  • 43 GW of additional balancing services have been procured
  • “We believe that electricity margins remain manageable”
  • “We have procured additional contingency balancing reserve compared to 2014/15”
  • “Loss of load expectation is 1.1 hours/year, equivalent to a de-rated margin of 5.1%”
  • “There is an increased likelihood that we will use the contingency balancing reserve procured for this winter to assist in system balancing”

Gas key messages:

  • Total winter demand estimated at 48.6 bcm
  • Peak demand estimated at 465 mcm/day
  • Supply potential of 613 mcm/day
  • “Demand is expected to be similar to last year”
  • “The price differential between coal and gas is likely to be much narrower than previous years. There is a potential for higher gas-fired generation demand”
  • “We have used a revised method on peaks, resulting in up to 4.8% reduction in peak demand”

Other interesting points to note:

Electricity:

If it wasn’t for the range of tools available to support security of supply and help balance the system, the capacity margin would be much less.  Those tools are:

  • Contingency reserve
  • Operating Reserve
  • Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR)
  • Scheduled Reserve
  • Other contracted reserve services
  • Fast Start
  • Fast Reserve
  • BM Start Up
  • Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR)
  • Supplemental Balancing Reserve (SBR)

Gas:

Although overall storage capacity has reduced due to constraints at the Rough and Hornsea sites, National Grid expect other supplies to replace this.  Storage withdrawal capability, which is the maximum amount that can be delivered on a daily basis, has increased from last winter due to two new medium range sites coming online, giving more flexibility to respond to any short-term supply constraints

Please call Alastair Hutson to discuss further, on 07887 568462

Download Winter Outlook 2015 report