Last Month Summary

UK gas prices posted modest gains during October. Gas prices rose 2.5% to 1.28 p/kWh reflecting falling temperatures low-pressure weather creating unsettled weather conditions, hindering solar generation across much of Britain. Gas pipelines also experienced restricted flows for further maintenance across the Netherlands and Norway. LNG deliveries and gas storage levels are high, supplementing the gas system and capping gains.

In contrast to gas, power prices fell 4.0% to 4.57 p/kWh, as lower carbon prices reduced the cost of burning fossil fuels for power generation. Meanwhile, growing concerns of a second national lockdown in the UK, as well as in Germany and France, provide an increasingly negative forecast for energy demand.

Carbon recorded a 12.1% decline in European prices to €23.66/tCO2, as concerns remain over whether the UK and EU will come to an agreement on a trade deal after 1 Jan 2021. The Government’s decision to introduce a new nationwide lockdown until the start of December supports concerns over the possibility of a second wave of Covid-19, Brent crude oil prices moved 8.1% lower during October to $37.65/bbl.

Recommendations

Gas prices are still attractive for clients with 1 April 2021 renewals. While electricity prices are already at a premium, last month’s losses means there’s an opportunity to secure open contracts this month.

For businesses not renewing until early-2021, November may be the last opportunity to lock in contracts while energy prices remain low. If your contracts aren’t renewing until Oct-2021, there may be another opportunity for you during summer 2021. But it may be a good idea to lock in any earlier renewals as soon as possible before winter temperatures arrive.

Beond Rolling Annual Indices since Jan-07

Beond Price Risk Report 1 November 2020
Source: Beond Analysis, Reuters

Wider Market

Coronavirus (Covid-19): The Government implemented new national restrictions from 5 November to combat the spread of Covid-19.

Information on the new national restrictions, including what they mean for working from home and business closures, why they are being instroduced and the financial support available: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november.

Please be aware of government guidance regarding Covid-19:
– stay at home as much as possible
– work from home if you can
– limit contact with other people
– keep your distance if you go out (2 metres apart where possible)
– wash your hands regularly
Please contact your Beond Account Manager if you have any questions.

UK renewable energy capacity to double by 2026: The UK’s ambitious goal to double its renewable energy capacity by 2030 will be achieved already by 2026, spurred by a wave of mostly wind power investments.

While offshore wind capacity will continue to rise after 2026 and reach nearly 40 GW by the end of the decade, onshore wind’s growth is projected to stall. The expected rapid deployment of offshore wind will require a substantial increase in the size of turbines, which implies a need for major expansion of UK manufacturing capacity.

SSEN and UK Power Networks launch Skyline to prepare for EV arrival: A new partnership, Skyline has launched to support the cost-effective transition to electric vehicles (EVs). Data from car dealerships, charge point operators and electricity networks is being shared and used to target investment and pave the way for the net zero carbon transport revolution.

Download

Disclaimer: These views and recommendations are offered for your consideration and Beond makes every effort to ensure that the data and information in this report is accurate.   However, due to the volatile and unpredictable nature of the energy markets, Beond cannot guarantee the accuracy of both the information and the recommendations provided.  Beond does not accept any responsibility for errors or misstatements, or for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this information and/or further communication in relation to this information.